Dragons tipped to defeat the Wildcats tonight
30/11/2006
Projected StartersDragons: Shane Heal, Kavossy Franklin, Jacob Holmes, Rosell Ellis, Frank Drmic
Wildcats: Adam Caporn, Darren Brooks, Shawn Redhage, Tony Ronaldson, Paul Rogers
Bench
Dragons: Joe Ingles, Matthew Burston, Matt Shanahan, Adam Quick, Brent Hobba
Wildcats: Peter Crawford, Justin Brown, Ben Hunt, Jeff Dowdell, Brad Robbins
Current Record
Dragons 6-8, 8th; Wildcats 10-5, 4th
Recent Form
Dragons: Won 115-104 vs Razorbacks @ Melbourne, Won 105-104 vs Razorbacks @ West Sydney
Wildcats: Lost 67-80 to Kings @ Canberra (Sydney home game)
Scott Fisher is a worried man. His team is coming off the worst shooting performance in franchise history against the Kings, he is getting mediocre play from the point guard position and questions are being asked as to whether Darren Brooks is in danger of being cut. It’s a far cry from a couple of weeks ago when the Fish was celebrating one of the great comebacks of all time in that memorable win over Sydney at the Jungle, but there’s no doubt cracks are starting to appear in the Wildcats’ foundation. In contrast, Shane Heal couldn’t be happier. His team have won two straight, they are in the Top Eight for the first time this season and are even getting victories when they don’t play that well, as was the case last Friday at the PigPen when they had to withstand a second half West Sydney onslaught to earn the regular season series win. In fact, there is not one team hotter than the Dragons right now – they have won four out of their last five and are finally showing why many people anointed them playoff contenders right off the bat. Heal forms an outstanding backcourt combo with Kavossy Franklin, Joe Ingles is a rising star, Rosell Ellis has been an excellent pickup and is the kind of fiery, competitive personality his coach loves, and Matt Burston’s 16 points against West Sydney on the road was a welcome sign that he is finally getting his legs beneath him after a frustrating run with injury. Perth could not have been worse in the loss to Sydney and Fisher afterwards was stunned with his team’s lack of composure that saw them miss layup after layup and turn the ball over 24 times against some admittedly maniacal Kings’ D. But the biggest concern is when your coach and captain both come out and say the team played soft and have been pushed around by smaller teams in consecutive games. There’s no way a big, physical unit like the Wildcats should allow that to happen. This is beginning to smell a little bit like 2004/05, when the Cats started 8-2 and looked all the world like title contenders before slumping in the end, and the Perth coaching staff has an enormous task to turn this thing around. They have matchup problems in this game if Adam Caporn can’t stay out of foul trouble – while Brad Robbins is a serviceable backup he isn’t going to lead you to a W and it’s clear Brooks isn’t the answer at the point. Shawn Redhage is outstanding but he can’t do it on his own and Tony Ronaldson must bounce back from the worst shooting performance of his career. Perth should look to get the ball inside as often as possible and try to overpower South’s smaller frontline; the Dragons will spread the floor and play a ton of zone to make the Cats beat them from the outside. Perth will likely be favoured in this match-up, but I’ve been impressed with how South is playing right now and I’m tipping them to get the upset at home.
Matt’s Prediction: Dragons by 5